Results of 3-population flare forecasting

Results of 3-population flare forecasting for the total unsigned magnetic flux

Gaussian
M-X
X

total AR-events
< f >
< x >
Median f
σ_f
σ_x
< f|x=1 >
< f|x=0 >
SD f|x=1
SD f|x=0
MAE(f,x)=< |f-x| >
MSE(f,x)=< |f-x|² >
SS(f,x)
91
0.0633
0.0750
0.0227
0.0947
0.263
0.139
0.0572
0.129
0.0885
0.117
0.0671
0.0339
20
0.0281
0.0165
0.000221
0.126
0.127
0.353
0.0227
0.414
0.107
0.0330
0.0214
-0.323

nonparametric
M-X
X

total AR-events
< f >
< x >
Median f
σ_f
σ_x
< f|x=1 >
< f|x=0 >
SD f|x=1
SD f|x=0
MAE(f,x)=< |f-x| >
MSE(f,x)=< |f-x|² >
SS(f,x)
91
0.0717
0.0750
0.0336
0.0926
0.263
0.183
0.0627
0.191
0.0722
0.119
0.0612
0.118
20
0.0150
0.0165
0.00368
0.0452
0.127
0.152
0.0127
0.208
0.0326
0.0264
0.0137
0.154

Reliability plots for M-X

Reliability plots for X