NWRA/DAFFS Help & Information

DAFFS demo
DAFFS live site

Please email daffs at nwra dot com with your name and organization to request access to the live site.

Please note that we address problems as soon as we can. Please email to the same address if you see an outtage or problem; we likely already know, but just in case, it is OK to email. We do not provide 24/7 service, however. We will post notices of expected outtages here.

DAFFS Details

DAFFS is the Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System. It uses non-parametric discriminant analysis on photospheric magnetic field data and prior flaring history of active regions to produce solar flare probabilities twice per day, effectively at midnight and noon Universal Time. Both full-disk and region flare probabilities are provided for a variety of event definitions, generally matching the NOAA/SWPC forecasts. See below for options to help us improve, or provide you with a customized tool.

See Leka, Barnes and Wagner 2018 for additional details on DAFFS

DAFFS Pages Details
DAFFS demo page DAFFS detail demo page

DAFFS is one of the facilities reviewed in The Nagoya Operational Flare Forecasting Comparison Studies:
Leka et al 2019a, Leka et al 2019b, Park et al 2020

Improvements and Customization
Below is an (incomplete) list of Improvements and Customization options that we can supply.
Improvements
- Multiple parameter-pairs running simultaneously. While not strictly treated as an ensemble, it would enhance confidence and guard against outlier forecasts.
- More frequent or solar-cycle relevant retraining.
- Additional improved graphics (temporally tracking the AR-location dots in the parameter distributions, for example).
- Improved handling of high-skew variables (improves performance).
- Hopefully coming soon: Improvements during times of variable flare productivity (the "first flare / last flare challenge") and for limb flares (NASA R2O2R Grant 80NSSC22K0273)
Customization
- Validity period (from 24hr to, e.g., 6hr)
- Frequency of forecasts (from 12hr to, e.g. 1hr)
- Latency of forecasts (from 0hr / 24hr / 48hr to your choice)
- Event definition. Simplest: anything available from NOAA/GOES-based published information. Possible: other wavelengths (e.g., EUV) or phenomena.
- Optimize to avoid false alarms, or optimize to avoid missed events.
Please contact us at daffs at nwra dot com if you are interested.
Portions of the content of these pages were developed under an SBIR funded NOAA contract WC-133R-14-CN-0103. SBIR Data rights apply to all use and dissemination through 02 September 2021. With the exception of the rights automatically afforded to NOAA and the US Government, all data and forecasts provided herein are considered NWRA proprietary data, and are not to be used, quoted, or replicated in any manner except by explicit written permission from NWRA. NWRA, NWRA staff, and the DAFFS developers assume no liability for actions taken based on the information presented in the DAFFS tool.
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