NWRA/DAFFS Flare Forecasting System

Forecast probabilities for 2016-04-18 @ 00:00:00:

Produced with DAFFS V0.2-20160503

Training interval: [20121001, 20151231]

1 Day Forecasts (0.0h latency, 24h validity):

C1+ 2016-04-18_00:00:00 to 2016-04-19_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.59	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		<.01	0 (good data)
H5005		<.01	0 (good data)
H5006	12532	0.14	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.66

M1+ 2016-04-18_00:00:00 to 2016-04-19_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.10	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		<.01	0 (good data)
H5005		<.01	0 (good data)
H5006	12532	<.01	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.10

X1+ 2016-04-18_00:00:00 to 2016-04-19_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	<.01	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	1 (null-good)
H5002		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5005		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5006	12532	<.01	1 (null-good)
FULL DISK		<.01

2 Day Forecasts (24.0h latency, 24h validity):

C1+ 2016-04-19_00:00:00 to 2016-04-20_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.66	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		<.01	3 (good-bad)
H5005		<.01	3 (good-bad)
H5006	12532	0.12	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.70

M1+ 2016-04-19_00:00:00 to 2016-04-20_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.11	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		<.01	3 (good-bad)
H5005		<.01	3 (good-bad)
H5006	12532	0.02	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.13

X1+ 2016-04-19_00:00:00 to 2016-04-20_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	<.01	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	1 (null-good)
H5002		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5005		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5006	12532	<.01	1 (null-good)
FULL DISK		<.01

3 Day Forecasts (48.0h latency, 24h validity):

C1+ 2016-04-20_00:00:00 to 2016-04-21_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.52	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		0.02	0 (good data)
H5005		<.01	0 (good data)
H5006	12532	0.09	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.58

M1+ 2016-04-20_00:00:00 to 2016-04-21_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	0.12	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	0 (good data)
H5002		<.01	0 (good data)
H5005		<.01	0 (good data)
H5006	12532	<.01	0 (good data)
FULL DISK		0.13

X1+ 2016-04-20_00:00:00 to 2016-04-21_00:00:00
HARP	NOAA	Forecast	Status
H4989	12529	<.01	0 (good data)
H4999	12531	<.01	1 (null-good)
H5002		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5005		<.01	1 (null-good)
H5006	12532	<.01	1 (null-good)
FULL DISK		<.01

The content of these pages were developed under NOAA contract WC-133R-14-CN-0103 and are protected under SBIR Data Rights (Ref. FAR 52.227-20). All data and forecasts provided herein are considered NWRA proprietary data, and are not to be used, quoted, or replicated in any manner except by explicit written permission from NWRA.
Copyright 2015-2016 NorthWest Research Associates, Inc. All Rights Reserved.